Renewable Fuels: Advancing European Market Uptake
Type of post: ARTICLE.
Author: Vanessa Vivian Wabitsch, REVOLVE
Contributors: Ayla Uslu, ECN part of TNO, Thomas
Christensen, Imperial College, Cosette Khawaja, Rainer Janssen, WIP Renewable
Energies; Rita Clancy, Eurida Research.
Discovering
the world, working with people across the globe, commuting to work everyday or
consuming exotic fruits imported to Europe – nearly every European is used to
at least one of these habits producing a significant amount of carbon
emissions. On the road to decarbonizing transport and reaching climate targets,
the market uptake of renewable fuels is essential.
The European transport sector is the
only major sector where greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are continuously
increasing. In 2017, transport emissions (excluding international aviation and
maritime) represented close to 22% of the total European emissions; and it is
estimated that these carbon emissions have risen by 20% since 1990. While road
transport has contributed the most to the transport sector’s GHG emissions, the
largest increase in final energy consumption has occurred in the aviation
sector between 1990 and 2016, and this sector is expected to continue growing
rapidly. International shipping activity is also expected to increase as it is
driven by increasing globalization and trade.
In response to increasing emissions, the
EU has set several targets to mitigate and limit GHG emissions from transport.
An overall target of a 60% reduction in GHG emission within the transport
sector by 2050 was set in 2011 (compared to 1990) – still too low to reach the
2015 Paris Agreement aspiring to limit global warming to less than 1.5°C. In
2015, the study
“Emission reduction targets for international aviation and shipping”
conducted for the European Parliament suggests that by 2050 global aviation
emissions should be at least 41% lower than in 2005, and the global emissions
of the shipping sector to be at least 63% lower.
The European transport sector is the only major sector
where greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are continuously increasing.
Renewable fuels are among the most
viable options to reduce GHG emissions in the transport sector. While
electrification becomes more significant, (mainly in road and rail transport),
advanced biofuels are expected to maintain a significant role for the shipping
and aviation sectors – especially in the short- and mid-term. A number of
scenarios conducted for the European Commission and by the International Energy
Agency (IEA) indicate the need for large quantities of renewable fuel demanded
by 2050. With the aim of contributing to the Paris Agreement goals, the PRIMES
scenarios foresee a major increase in current biofuel use. If demand in 2050
is to be met completely by advanced biofuels, this implies a more than 10-fold
increase of their uptake in the time frame between 2017-2050. For the
successful and sufficient market uptake of biofuels, feedstock has to be
produced sustainably in sufficient quantities.
Ensuring sustainable feedstock
There has been a great deal of
skepticism followed by strong debates about the overall sustainability of
biofuels especially their impact on land use patterns and food prices, and
their carbon emissions across the production value chain. In response, a new
generation of renewable transport fuels is emerging produced from non-food
biomass called advanced biofuels.
Europe has significant potential to
produce advanced biofuels from lignocellulosic feedstock (such as waste and
residues from agriculture and forestry). There are many initiatives that
provide evidence to that. The EU H2020 projects FORBIO and SEEMLA
demonstrated that biomass can be produced for bioenergy in a sustainable way on
underused land, a process which is in line with the objectives of the EU
Renewable Energy Directive (RED II), showing a high potential in promoting the
production of advanced biofuels. The latest findings of the ADVANCEFUEL
project show that many biomass sources are potential candidates that require
sustainability efforts before they are readily available to produce advanced
biofuels at a commercial scale (e.g. infrastructure, farmers experience,
regulatory compliance and support, suitable for conversion).
Water scarcity and marginality are a
major challenges concerning biomass productivity and profitability on underused
land. The web global information system (GIS) developed by the BIOPLAT-EU project helps identify suitable
marginal, underutilized and contaminated (MUC) lands around Europe, assessing
environmental, social and economical sustainability indicators of bioenergy
value chains. Another option to tackle limited available fresh water and
marginal land is to use seaweed as novel biomass for alternative transport
fuels. The MacroFuels project
developed several routes for the conversion of seaweed to biofuels which, once
upscaled, will be economically viable. MacroFuels further achieved urgent
technological breakthroughs towards large-scale seaweed cultivation such as
deployment and cultivation at sea, automated harvesting or efficient storage
and pre-treatment methods.
Although RED II is an important step
forward in recognizing the need to cover all bioenergy uses and supporting
renewable fuels in the transport sector, lack of internationally recognized and
harmonized criteria between different bioenergy sectors remains a major barrier
to the commercialization of advanced biofuels that will increasingly be
produced in multi-output biorefineries and supplied to international markets such
as shipping and aviation. Harmonization of national and voluntary
sustainability certification schemes at EU level is key for the market uptake
of advanced biofuels. The ADVANCEFUEL project provides a set of sustainability
criteria and indicators along the whole supply chain and recommendations to
enhance the sustainability performance of biofuels.
End use of advanced biofuels
In addition to incremental
sustainability governance and availability of biomass for the production of
advanced biofuels, a secure and stable policy framework and significant cost
reductions are essential for a successful market uptake. According to the progress
review by the European Commission conducted by Navigant , the EU is on
track for reaching renewable energy and biofuel targets 2020. However, the IEA World Energy Outlook, flags that
the biofuel production in EU member states is not on track to meet the IEA
Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) demand in 2030 as most biofuel
consumption is at low percentage blend levels with fossil fuels. It forecasts
annual production growth of 0.5% in Europe, falling short of the 8% of growth
to meet the SDS. Higher biofuel blend rates or greater use of drop-in biofuels
are essential to increase the consumption of biofuels. To tackle the high costs
of advanced biofuel investment and production, the IEA recommends to introduce
supportive policies to facilitate the technology learning and production
scale-up necessary to reduce costs.
European renewable fuels market
analysis by the ADVANCEFUEL project indicates that Europe started off well with
the advanced fuels sub-obligation of 3.5% (including double counting)
introduced in RED II. However, this may not be yet sufficient to meet the Paris
Agreement targets. For road and rail transport, the EU introduced a mandatory
renewable energy target. In contrary to road and rail, the aviation and
shipping sectors are regulated at an international level. As of 2021, a global
market-based measure, Carbon
Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), will
be operational addressing CO2 emissions in the aviation sector allowing
airlines to buy emission reduction offsets from other sectors to compensate
emissions or use eligible fuels with lower carbon use.
In spring 2018, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)
adopted a strategy to reduce total GHG emissions from shipping by 50% in 2050,
and to reduce the average carbon intensity by 40% in 2030 and 70% in 2050,
compared to 2008 by focusing efforts on enhancing the energy efficiency
performance of shipping, encouraging the development of national action plans
to develop policies addressing GHG emissions from international shipping, and
provide technical cooperation and capacity-building activities.
Europe started off well with the advanced fuels
sub-obligation of 3.5%, yet this may not be sufficient to meet the Paris
Agreement targets.
Scaling up advanced biofuels
Production costs of advanced biofuels
from lignocellulosic feedstocks are typically more than twice the price of
conventional fossil fuels and the current low fossil fuel prices have been a
considerable obstacle to their development and deployment as shown by latest
ADVANCEFUEL results. The shipping sector can use a large range of advanced
biofuels. The future ability of advanced biofuels to compete in the market will
depend on cost reductions such as technological learning, economies of scale,
efficiency improvements, more affordable and more sustainable feedstocks as
well as the evolution of fossil fuel prices. Making them competitive can be
difficult, especially in the aviation sector due to their high production costs
and energy intensity. In shipping, biofuels can be a viable option due to lower
production costs and the large demand from the industry.
Production costs of advanced biofuels are more than
twice the price of conventional fossil fuels.
To
reach climate goals and decarbonize road, maritime and air transport, upscaling
biofuels is crucial and an indispensable way forward in the energy transition. In
addition to using all possible renewable fuel options, maximizing energy
efficiency and energy saving is necessary. There are still some roadblocks to
remove in the strategy to ensure a smooth market uptake of renewable fuels. Concerted
stakeholder action is essential to put transport biofuels on track with the Paris
Agreement. Policy is therefore an important tool to steer future market uptake
towards value chains that source sustainable feedstock and employ resource
efficient conversion pathways generating rural and global economic development
and a more decarbonized mobility around the world.
